Are U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan finally listening to their European counterparts and advocating for a softer approach on China? Churches in Mexico commemorate the story of Jesus rising to heaven on Ascension Day. Coming out of the referendum, the president and his backers will be able to point to the overwhelming support for Mr. Lpez Obrador and his political project among his base, even at a moment of weakness. And I think what is happening right now in Mexico, which is not an isolated case, there are a lot of links with what is happening in American democracy, or Brazilian democracy, or even in other parts of the world., The latest reforms were plan B, following a failed attempt at a sweeping, last December that sought even more extreme measures to restrict electoral agencies and remove their independence. Though it was called to commemorate Mexico's 1938 expropriation of the oil industry, many of those attending the rally Saturday agreed that it was the de-facto opening salvo to the 2024 elections that will choose the presidents successor. CNN . [5] A candidacy by Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas, son of former presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio Murrieta, has been floated around by the media.[5]. Among the worst-performing countries in the region are Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and most recently, Haiti. The problem is that even though Augusto Lpez runs the countrys second most important office in AMLOs cabinet, he is little known at the national level. By gutting the INE, one of the countrys most revered and respected agencies, Lpez Obrador threatens to end the longest period of political stability and democratic governance in Mexicos modern historymuch of which has been owed to the watchdog role played by the INE. His campaign has filedpaperwork with the Federal Election Commission confirming those plans. On the one hand, supporters of U.S. President Joe Biden point out that his White House has overseen a dramatic U-turn from the Show moredays of the Trump administration in terms of promoting decarbonization and clean energy and should be lauded for passing the (admittedly strangely titled) Inflation Reduction Act. Former Vice President MikePence andFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis are expected to enter the Republicanarenaas well both have made recent visits to Iowa, where the GOP's first primary contest will being held. The leader of Turkeys main opposition party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is currently leading in the polls. One thing is certain: It will be the middle class that decides the 2024 presidential race, a race with no constitutional second-term permitted. Although Mr. Lpez Obrador fell far short of the 40 percent participation required to make the results count, marshaling more than 15 million people across the country to vote in his favor underscores his ability to mobilize his base at a time when his governments achievements are under scrutiny. () Such is the case with Ricardo Anaya of the Partido de Accin Nacional (PAN), who ended up in second place to AMLO in 2018. But it is precisely this independence that hinders Ebrards chances of being selected by the president. Even if his party. But Berthin noted that 22 of the 35 countries in the Americas are staying the democratic course, and four nations are even improving. e General elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico in July 2024. This is a process, that will take 30, 40 years. a legislative overhaul of Mexicos National Electoral Institute (INE) in late February. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which held power in Mexico under single-party rule until 2000, is expected to win between 63 and 75 seats - up from 48. , nine of the 35 countries in the Americas saw a decline in their scores since last year. Presidential elections are held in the United States every four years. Polling booths and nearby areas are very busy with people on this day. The reforms, spearheaded by Lpez Obrador, would slash the agencys budget, shrink civil service staffing, and strip the agencys independence ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. We have to expect continued trouble for Mexico. But most agree that few of the presidential hopefuls can match the popularity of a president whose approval ratings are routinely above 60%. The next Mexican presidential elections are barely on the horizon. So @JoeBiden , the president of Mexico announced he was going to interfere with the next Presidential election.. but I doubt you'll do anything about it, since with all your failures he's doing it for your Marxist DemocRat party. Join FPs reporters in conversation with FP executive editor Amelia Lester for a wide-ranging discussion about how Washington is thinking about Beijing now. Moreover, these disgruntled constituents pay plenty in taxes that is being used to subsidize programs that are legitimately needed for the poor. On Wednesday, a DeSantis-appointed board voted to invalidate a Disney-friendly agreement, a move that prompted Walt Disney World to file a federal lawsuit accusing the DeSantis administration of engaging in a targeted campaign of government relation.. DeSantis, long viewed as Trumps strongest Republican challenger in 2024, has traveled far outside Florida in recent weeks to raise his profile. Mexican general election is not a public holiday in 2023. To find out, FPs Ravi Agrawal spoke to John Kerry, Bidens special envoy for climate. Our countries are not isolated islands,. The public debate centers almost exclusively on who the MORENA candidate will be. The I.N.E. Morena has something to offer for most of the population. As long as institutions are being undermined by personalistic or. The undisputed winner, beyond the war of figures and narratives, is the I.N.E., said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a political analyst. in a situation where it cannot fulfill its duties, said Lorenzo Crdova, the leader of the electoral agency. [4], Claudia Sheinbaum, head of government of Mexico City, has been proposed as a potential successor to Lpez Obrador, on multiple occasions she has stated that "Mexico is ready to elect a female president" and enjoys the support of high ranking members of the governing MORENA party such as governors Layda Sansores of Campeche and Alfonso Durazo of Sonora. Jos Cruz Arias Flores casting his ballot in Labor Vieja, in Jalisco State on Sunday. Lopez Obrador's successor is scheduled to be elected in June 2024. U.S. legal . [8], Despite being planned for 2021, the constitutional changes stipulated its realization one year later, in 2022. Privacy & Terms. Lorenzo Crdova is a lawyer and a scholar, a man with an office full of books. Turkeys leader for the last two decades, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could be defeated in the countrys next presidential election, scheduled for May 14. Thats a reversal of fortune for DeSantis, who over the past year has generally been competitive with Trump in one-on-one Republican primary polls. Delivered Monday-Saturday. The details remain to be seen. Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador speaks in Mexico City on June 28, 2022. MEXICO CITY (AP) Four candidates are in the race to become Mexico's next president in Sunday's election. All of this leaves Mexicos most urgent problems unattended. : 3 clues to track and his approval rating isn't one of them. It may be one of the last rallies that will be headed by Lpez Obrador, who is known for his folksy style and charisma. According to the governments National Institute for Statistics and Geography Inegi), the rich represent about 1.7 percent of the Mexican population, the middle class represents 39.2 percent, and the poor account for the remaining 59.1 percent. In a clear sign of movement on the campaign front, national political vendors descended on Tallahassee this week, vying for work on DeSantis forthcoming campaign. On corruption, Mexico is one of the lowest ranked on Transparency Internationals corruption index. The INE, which started preparations in August 2021,stated that there was a lack of resources for the consultation organization, causing it to challenge the budget approved by the Chamber of Deputies and ask the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation for their stance. This train is already in motion, somebody just to get aboard and drive it.. The most recent was while on an international trade mission in Japan this week. TALLAHASSEE, Fla. Florida Gov. And Lpez Obrador himself cant even run in 2024he just wants to make sure the dedazofinds the right candidatemeaning that his chosen successor makes their way into office. But the next three weeks could be among the most crucial in shaping the contours of the U.S. presidential race. The Race Begins for Mexico's Next President By Ana Paula Ordorica | July 14, 2022 The president's attention is devoted to lining up a successor, but several figures in the ruling party want the nomination. We, as Mexicans, were worried about what was happening in Brazilthe largest democracy in Latin Americabecause we are aware of a domino effect. The presidential electoral cycle for 2024 hasnt officially begun, per rules set by the electoral commission, but all three main contenders for the next presidential nomination were there. With the next presidential election about two years away, the recall referendum also presented an opportunity for Mr. Lpez Obrador to test his partys strengths and weaknesses across the country, and determine who might be best positioned to succeed him. The president has struggled to follow through on key campaign promises, with his approval rating slipping to 59 percent last month from 66 percent in December, according to a poll from El Economista newspaper. . He is perceived as a man that would favor his own agenda before that of the Fourth Transformation and will likely be chosen only if AMLO sees no other way for MORENA to keep the presidency. By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. The presidents critics pointed to the low overall turnout as anything but a mandate for Mr. Lpez Obrador and his efforts to transform the country. The leader of Turkeys main opposition party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is currently leading in the polls. Politics, Business & Culture in the Americas. Most notably, Trump has racked up endorsements from more than 50 members of Congress, including 11 from Floridas delegation, to DeSantis three. Some of these polls asked if the respondents approved of the president, not necessarily their stance on the referendum. The next presidential election will mark America's 60th presidential contest. In the three-seat constituencies, two seats are allocated to the party receiving the highest number of votes and one seat to the party receiving the second-highest number of votes. A good politician knows when their moment is and they seize the opportunity; theres no question that the door is swinging against DeSantis, said Dennis Lennox, a Michigan-based Republican strategist who wants to support DeSantis in 2024. Lpez Obrador, whose grievances with the INE date back to his failed 2006 and 2012 presidential bids, said these changes would guarantee . By refusing negotiation over Chinas rise, the United States might be making conflict inevitable. Keep up with the world without stopping yours. To become president, you must: Just Curious? More than 15 million Mexicans are happy and want me to continue until September 2024, Mr. Lpez Obrador said in a video message published shortly after preliminary results were announced. Explore the benefits of your FP subscription. Anteriormente, los presidentes electos asuman el mandato el 1 de diciembre y seis aos despus pasaban la . The synthetic opioid fentanyl, which kills about 70,000 Americans per year, is mainly manufactured in Mexico with precursor chemicals smuggled in from China. Stay updated on the topics you care about with email alerts. Any opinions expressed in this piece do not necessarily reflect those of. Alito, as he is known, is under investigation by the attorney general in his home state of Campeche. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a discussion with FP columnist Steven A. Cook and Gonul Tol, the founding director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute. Edited by Liz O. Baylen and Mike Benoist. The Mexican middle class generates about 50 percent of the countrys GDP and creates eight out of every 10 jobs, according the government statistics. In 30 of Mexico's states, there will be elections for state congress and for mayors as well. No party is allowed to hold more than 300 seats. And then, once in power, started trying to subvert the system to remain in power, Rudman said. The latest reforms were plan B, following a failed attempt at a sweeping constitutional reform last December that sought even more extreme measures to restrict electoral agencies and remove their independence. Disney sues DeSantis, as the Florida Gov. We, as Mexicans, were worried about what was happening in Brazilthe largest democracy in Latin Americabecause we are aware of a domino effect. Yes and no. Nikki Haley, andVivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy biotech entrepreneur have also thrown their hat in the ring. AMLO is hoping for his successor to continue his political programknown as the Fourth Transformationeven though with two years left in his presidency, his hoped-for legacy on combating poverty and inequality seems thin. ", "ESTUDIO ENTREGADO POR MASSIVE CALLER RELATIVO A LA REVOCACIN DE MANDATO 2022", "ESTUDIO ENTREGADO POR TRESEARCH RELATIVO A LA REVOCACIN DE MANDATO 2022", "AMLO arranca 2022 con cada en aprobacin; baja a 60%", "Hay alternativas a la consulta de revocacin de mandato? [2], The 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected by two methods; 300 are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, with the remaining 200 elected in a single nationwide constituency by proportional representation, with seats allocated using the simple quotient and largest remainder method. [5] Gerardo Fernndez Noroa, a representative from PT, has on multiple occasions expressed his desire to be the standard-bearer for the president's coalition in 2024. Lpez Obradors Reforms Threaten Mexican Democracy. Mexico's president is destroying democracy from the inside. Anything?. Still, in a hemisphere that has seen leaders rise to power through charismatic leadership and populistic ideals only to reveal their authoritarian intentions and machinations down the line, theres reason to be cautious, Berthin said. Others in the governors orbit, however, have argued that that date would be too soon, according to two of those sources. The referendum is typical of Mr. Lpez Obradors governing style. MEXICO CITY Mexico is holding a first-of-its-kind presidential recall referendum this Sunday. Which perspective has more value? On the Democratic side, Marianne Williamson, an author and spiritual leader is the first to announce her candidacy, running on a progressive platform. The important thing is for the ideology of Lpez Obrador to continue, Martnez said. PUERTO VALLARTA, Jalisco Leftist Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador (AMLO) is now halfway through his six-year term, and has promised to not try to stay in office when that term expires on Nov. 30, 2024. There are more than 1,900 mayoral contests and local . One of Lpez Obrador's main policy initiatives has been to save the state-owned oil company that Crdenas founded from crushing debt and low oil production. On June 6, Mexicans elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 15 governors, and local officials in 30 of 32 states in the single-round vote. In a moment that went viral, DeSantis was visibly unnerved by the questions and seemed unable to respond in a way that appeared prepared. The INE reforms are the latest, and perhaps highest-profile, of the Mexican presidents moves. April 28, 2023. The worry is that these reformsthe presidents second bite at the applesignal a larger trend away from the democratic system that has dominated in Mexico for more than two decades, making voting more difficult and reducing trust in elections. Watchthe full discussion on video orreada lightly edited and condensed transcript, exclusive to FPInsiders. 'I won't even think about leaving': Trump at CPAC says indictment wouldn't push him out of 2024 race, 2024 presidential race has a new player: A special counsel investigating Donald Trump. The Florida governor is poised to launch his presidential exploratory committee next month. Ordorica is a journalist and analyst based in Mexico City. [9] At the start of August 2021, after the corruption trial referendum, Lpez Obrador insisted that he himself would promote the recall election. President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador drew overwhelming support among those who cast ballots, but the recall referendum failed to achieve the required 40 percent threshold to be binding. He rose quickly through the conservative national ranks by taking a hands-off approach to the pandemic and placing Florida on the vanguard of conservatives biggest culture war fights. So whoever . Under Mexican law, presidents can serve only a single six-year term. Washington Post, which admittedly is not a great fan of AMLO, titled Who Will Be Mexicos Next President? Weekly update on whats driving U.S. national security policy. The last presidential election was Nov. 3, 2020. The institutes request for more funding from the federal government to oversee the vote was rejected. Perhaps conscious of recent tensions with the United States over U.S. overdose deaths from fentanyl smuggled in from Mexico, Lpez Obrador spent part of his speech praising former U.S. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who didn't actively oppose the 1938 oil expropriation despite the fact many of the firms were American. By gutting the INE, one of the countrys most revered and respected agencies, Lpez Obrador threatens to end the longest period of political stability and democratic governance in Mexicos modern historymuch of which has been owed to the watchdog role played by the INE. Biden's long-awaited announcement came early the morning of April 25 with a three-minute video indicating the President planned to run for a second term. On Sunday, almost 18 percent of the electorate cast their ballot, far less than was needed for the result to become binding, making the outcome largely symbolic. You may opt out at any time. Graphs are temporarily unavailable due to technical issues. There are signs AMLO will go to great lengths to have a successor elected. Even though the gap between the countries that improved and the countries that declined in our report this year has declined for the first time in 17 years, the larger trend of backsliding continues, said Gerardo Berthin, vice president of international programs at Freedom House. Anti-migrant policies delayed rescue after a shipwreck that killed 90 people. Members of Congress and voters are choosing the fight they think is more important.. But for years, he has demonized the media, lionized the military, and belittled his political opposition. The initial referendum wording proposed was Do you agree that the tenure of the person holding the position of the president of the Republic be terminated early, due to loss of confidence?[11] Nevertheless, the legislative groups of Morena, the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) and Labor Party (PT), did not get the necessary votes to convene the special session.[12]. Evening roundup with our editors favorite stories of the day. And I think what is happening right now in Mexico, which is not an isolated case, there are a lot of links with what is happening in American democracy, or Brazilian democracy, or even in other parts of the world.. ", "AMLO registra en diciembre su mejor nivel de aprobacin del 2021", "ENCUESTA: Baja aprobacin de Lpez Obrador", "Gira por EU 'da alas' a AMLO: Aprobacin repunta a 66% en noviembre", "AMLO sube aprobacin, pese a percepcin en seguridad", "Mexicanos difieren con AMLO sobre crticas a la UNAM", "Mes patrio le da 'empujoncito' a AMLO': sube a 61% de aprobacin", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Mexican_presidential_recall_referendum&oldid=1123767676, Short description is different from Wikidata, Articles needing translation from Spanish Wikipedia, Articles containing Spanish-language text, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0. Blas Ramos, 69, an electrical engineer, held up a sign reading Get out of Mexico, FBI, CIA, Gringos!. The day marks the new president of Mexico taking office. Can AMLOs Popularity Survive a U.S. A Morning Consult poll out Tuesday had Trump with a 37 percentage-point lead on DeSantis, his biggest margin to date. But fortunately, as the protests about the electoral authority showed, Mexico is a very pluralist society with a lot of people who believe in democracy and stand up to protect institutions, Carothers said. From rubies in Mozambique to sand in the South China Sea. EXCLUSIVE 2024 Election Ron DeSantis is set to jump into the 2024 presidential fray in mid-May The Florida governor is poised to launch his presidential exploratory committee next month.. With that, on 4 February, the call for consultation was approved, causing the installation of 57,377 polling stations and 1.5 billion Mexican pesos available for the INE, less than half of the initially requested money. Celia Talbot Tobin for The New York Times. Mexicos middle class, disenfranchised by the political system, including some of whom did vote for AMLO last time around, are now saying, What do I get from my government? Turn on desktop notifications for breaking stories about interest? In an event at his Mar-A-Lago beach club on Nov. 15, the former president announced his plans to run. She was elected mayor as a feminist with a progressive agenda, but in trying to please AMLO, Sheinbaum has changed her tune, initially dismissing feminist street protests (an attitude in line with the presidents approach to discontent with his government). People from Morena itself have said that they know its unconstitutional, but they dont care. Two other Republicans ex-South Carolina Gov. A monthly digest of the top articles read by FP subscribers. Lpez Obrador thundered against the U.S. proposals. The last one was in 2020, so the next contest for the highest office in the nation will be in 2024. It does not matter too terribly much, either, who the opposition candidate will be. They are also a signal to the Supreme Court that there is strong public opposition against the reforms. He was accused of violating an electoral tribunal prohibition on government officials campaigning for a recall vote in April by using a military plane to fly to the north of Mexico to speak about the vote. The backsliding trend across the Americas is especially marked by the closing of civic spaces and civil society, attacks on democratic institutions from within, incumbent institutional restructuring, impunity for corruption, disregard for human rights, and the influence of other actors like organized crime networks and anti-democratic forces from China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba, Berthin said. With little response, the Trump attacks have helped redefine DeSantis with Trumps intense political base, of which DeSantis will have to erode to be viable in a 2024 Republican presidential primary. (Anaya denies the charges and notes he was no longer in the Chamber of Deputies when the vote took place.)
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